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The data looked forward as well as backward in time to analyse the potential problems posed by our country not having enough driving instructors in the future
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Since lock down demand for driving lessons has soared and we at Prime Driving School following some detailed research came across this
interesting data looking at demographics relating to the need for young people to learn to drive set against the amount of driving instructors nationally.
The research found that there are many learners now back on the road after their lessons were suspended because of the Corona Virus.
There were some 210,000 driving tests that were cancelled and tens of thousands more were delayed because of the virus according to the Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency (DVSA)
A combination of the recent lockdown restrictions, a 2003/04 "baby boom" and a decline in registered driving instructors means the UK could see a major national shortage of driving instructors in the second half of 2020 and beyond.
The research suggests it could prove difficult to find an instructor with space for new learners over the coming months particularly as more people choose to move away from using public transport.
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The researchers looked at the potential number of new young learners based on the amount of people turning 17-years-old each year against the number of registered approved driving instructors (ADIs).
Despite the delays caused by Covid-19 in recent months, it's clear the potential demand for driving instructors looks set to only increase when you look at the data alone.
According to data from the Department of Transport there were 39,521 registered ADIs in the UK at the start of 2020, with 695,549 people turning 17-years-old and potentially looking to start driving.
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This works out at about 17.59 learners per instructor and this is predicted to rise even higher in the next few years if the declining trend in number of instructors continues.
The research carried out by Marmalade insurance say's it's also important to note that this data is based on the amount of 17-year-old learners alone and that demand will be even higher when you consider new learner drivers 18+.
In addition to the 695,549 people turning 17 in 2020, almost 1.3 million drivers aged 18+ took their driving test in the year up to April 2020 highlighting the impounding problem if this trend continues.
According to data from the Department of Transport, the amount of UK driving instructors has fallen by 12% over the past seven years "falling from 44,569 in 2013 to 39,521 at the start of 2020" and this is predicted to fall even further in the coming years.
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Based on current trends, the number of instructors on the road in 2025 looks set to fall to just over 38,000 as more instructors retire or move into other careers themselves, which could make things difficult for provisional drivers.
A breakdown of the results from the study is as follows:
| Year | Amount of people turning 17 years of age that year | Number / predicted number of registered ADIs | Potential young learners v number of ADIs | % change |
| 2013 (born in 1996) | 733,163 | 44,569 | 16.45 | - |
| 2014 (born in 1997) | 726,622 | 43,330 | 16.76 | +1.88% |
| 2015 (born in 1998) | 716,888 | 41,579 | 17.24 | +2.86% |
| 2016 (born in 1999) | 699,976 | 39,878 | 17.55 | +1.80% |
| 2017 (born in 2000) | 679,029 | 39,413 | 17.23 | -1.82% |
| 2018 (born in 2001) | 669,123 | 39,248 | 17.05 | -1.04% |
| 2019 (born in 2002) | 668,777 | 39,710 | 16.84 | -1.23% |
| 2020 (born in 2003) | 695,549 | 39,521 | 17.59 | +4.45% |
| 2021 (born in 2004) | 716,996 | 39,300* | 18.24 | +3.70% |
| 2022 (born in 2005) | 722,549 | 39,000* | 18.52 | +1.54% |
| 2023 (born in 2006) | 748,563 | 38,700* | 19.34 | +4.43% |
| 2024 (born in 2007) | 772,245 | 38,400* | 20.11 | +3.98% |
| 2025 (born in 2008) | 794,383 | 38,100* | 20.84 | +3.63% |
*Based on predictions and trends modelling using data from the Department of Transport.
The figures also suggest that while the shortage of instructors at the second half of 2020 will be compounded by the recent lockdown and social distancing measures, this is a problem that looks set to cause a headache in the next few years.
Not only is the number of instructors set to continue falling as the number of those retiring outweighs new entrants to the profession, but the number of those turning 17 in 2021-2025 looks set to also increase drastically - up by almost 795,000 in 2025.
A quote from a well known driving instructor said, "As an industry, Covid-19 has hit us hard. Being unable to work for 14 weeks has really taken its toll and returning to work, although welcomed, has been made challenging for a number of reasons.
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It's been great catching up with pupils I've not driven with for four months and lovely to welcome those who have turned 17 during lockdown and had to wait till they could start, however I'm having to turn new enquiries away .It's unfair to put future pupils on my indefinite waiting list."
The impact of a 2003 'baby boom'
The amount of people born in 2003 saw a significant spike compared to the three preceding years, following a bit of a lull between 2000-2002, and based on the birth rates alone, around 695,000 people will turn 17 in 2020; that's 27,000 more compared to 2019 alone.
However, the amount of potential learners only looks set to grow when you look at the birth stats for the following years. The amount of people turning 17 in the years 2021-2025 grows exponentially year-on-year as follows:
- Estimated amount of people turning 17 in 2021 (born in 2004): 718,996
- Estimated amount of people turning 17 in 2022 (born in 2005): 722,549
- Estimated amount of people turning 17 in 2023 (born in 2006): 748,563
- Estimated amount of people turning 17 in 2024 (born in 2007): 772,245
- Estimated amount of people turning 17 in 2025 (born in 2008): 794,383
CEO at Marmalade Crispin Moger said: "While it's not surprising that the demand for driving instructors looks to be significant in the coming months following the lockdown restrictions, this is just the beginning when it comes to the much bigger issue of a national shortage of approved driving instructors.
With the warnings surrounding public transport, we are expecting to see more young people than ever before wanting to learn to drive themselves over the coming months, and this is before you even look at the national birth statistics which suggests more teenagers than ever will be turning 17 in the coming years."
If you have read this far, this article has got your interest and we at Prime Driving School would like speak to you. Click the link below to download our free report on training with out any cost with Prime Driving School to become a Fully Qualified Driving Instructor.
